SPX: 880 to 1075

I find the weekly S&P 500 chart very interesting. We've seen the SPX move from 880 to 1075, nearly 200 points, yet, volatility (VIX) remains the same. What does that mean? It means that traders aren't buying the move up as a change in directions, rather, perhaps this is just a part of the pullback of a bearish market?

Using a high of 1576 and low of 666, 50% retracement is at 1121. We aren't that far from it with the high of 1075. That's less than 50 points away, after a 195 pt move up. The market often likes 50% retracements. Will it here? The other points are 38.2% and 61.8%. It's passed the 38.2%.
This is a daily perspective of the SPX. The darker blue diagonal line is the bigger trend. If it breaks the lighter blue trend line, watch to see if it will fall to the darker, which is around 1000. I find trends very interesting. It's not always 100%, but it does often hold true.

Whether this is a daily, weekly, hourly, minute-by-minute, follow your rules. I have not been following mine, as I go back to review my trades. Instead, it's been more emotional based trading, which isn't good at all. Time to get back to basics.

So, if I were going to place a trade, I'd go short if it breaks the light blue line, and long if it bounces off it going up. My targets up would be first 1075ish, then 1120ish. Targets to the downside would be first in the 1025, then 1000 areas.

Labels: 0 comments | edit post


It's been awhile since I wrote. Truthfully, I've been trading on/off, but not consistently.

What really makes a successful trader, after you understand all the technicals? I'm not really sure. Follow your trading plan, trading strategy. We are human beings, not mechanical beings.

As I chatted with a fellow trader, engineer, and friend this evening, we found emotions still get the best of us, causing us to abandon the best laid plans of mice and men. I'm not there yet, and not ready yet to share of all my foibles.

It's been 7 weeks since I moved. I'm adjusting, but still not real happy about things there. Maybe that's what's impeding my trading, causing it to go backwards.

And, I've been a bit preoccupied in some personal things in my life that are going well. It's been a long time coming and I'm very happy there. Hopefully that will offset eventually my move.

Hopefully in this next week, I'll have something to write about with regards to trading.

8:30 am EST

I've noticed Wed-Fri this week, as I've been up early (it's 5:30 am PST), as I've sat here to watch the market and multi-task, at 5:30 am PST, the market just goes wild, at least in comparison to what it had been doing previously for the many hours.

Not sure why this is so, but if you're trading the hour before the market opens, trade with caution. I've been in trades and thankfully, the minute before 5:30 am PST, I get out of my trades because a couple times, it went the complete opposite direction in many points and would've cost me big time, as it would've taken out my cost stops.

Short-Term Goals

My goal today was to net $50. Now that I did that fairly easily, Monday I'll up my goal to $100. When I meet that goal, then it will be $150 up to $300. When I get to $300, I'll stay there and require myself to get this at least 7 times in 2 consecutive weeks. When I'm able to do that, then I'm move to $400 net/day. When I can get it 7 times in 2 consecutive weeks (10 trading days), then I'll move to $500 net/day.

How long will this take? I have no clue. So, let's see.

Come Back

Well, my come back this week has not been stellar.

Had 2 weeks off to get business done and to get my mind cleared so I can trade well.

My starting daily goal is net $50. Yes, I know, not a lot and very little, but after the streak I had, this is a good goal because it's in the POSITIVE!

Here are the details of my trading this week - not stellar, but it's reality & the truth. Sometimes facing the truth sucks, but when you are able to do that, then you can do something about it and move forward. The Truth Shall Set You Free.

Mon (8/31) - Did not trade (last day of trading vacation/break)
Tues (9/1) - 3 trades (0 profits) - net <$275.53>
Wed (9/2) - 1 trade (1 profit) - net $33.51
Thurs (9/3) - 10 trades (7 profits) - net <$114.90>
Fri (9/4) - 3 trades (3 profits) - net $50.53
Week's Results - 17 trades (11 profits) - net <$306.39>

Sort of embarrassing to show these results. However, it is what it is and that's what I did in my funded account. Though 65% of my trades ARE profitable, the profits are small in comparison to the 35% of the trades that are costing, which are much bigger. I've definitely got to work on this.

What were some of my learnings this week?

1. The fibs work. Use them BEFORE making a trade.
2. Get sleep (yes, I know an issue - too lengthy to explain & no need focusing on negative things)
3. Spend more time in the Bible & prayer - this helps me to stay focused on the Lord and not do stupid things, like get into bad trades, rather allowing me to be patient for the right setup as per my written trading strategy.
4. Do more EFT to help calm me down, so I can see clearly.
5. Wait for confirmation of a movement, so I can go for bigger moves and have a better reward ratio than I have been having.
6. Do not trade when things are moving fast. I'm just not skilled enough in really fast/volatile markets. I can trade medium to slow markets. -- Know when to stay out, even if $$$$ signs are popping in front of my face.
7. Get rid of negative thinking & emotions BEFORE trading.
8. Get rid of distractions - turn off the fricken Yahoo IM.
10. Manage emotions.
11. Get in at pullbacks.
12. The trend is your friend.
13. Don't focus on the money, rather just trading well.
14. Start off slow & gradual.
15. Know when to stop. Tuesday was not a good example as the costs were too big, but I did stop after 3 costing trades.
16. Keep positions small until you do well with ONE contract.
17. Don't think pining for when you did better, because every trade is separate and unique. Focus on that ONE trade you are in or about to take.

I'm pretty sure this whole list of 15 things I've written somewhere multiple times before as well as you seeing it in other articles, blogs, books on trading. Just confirming once again these are all very valid.

Amazon Store