Calmer

Last night I did not get much sleep, rather stayed up texting one of my friends. The intention was to go to bed before 10 pm, which I almost succeeded, but distracted myself.

I did not start trading today until 2:30 pm EST, the last 2 hrs of trading for the day. I made 3 trades during this time and will discuss them.


This was the day's price action on the ES. Pretty much at least until 8:30 am, usually I'm doing kid stuff like getting them ready for school, dropping them off at school. Because I didn't sleep very much last night, I was so very tired and felt that I needed some sleep, so I opted to sleep after I got back from dropping of the kids to school and said that I would trade after 11:15 am, which I did @ 11:30 am.

What I want you to see is that if you take the highs around the 7 am timeframe and the lows of at the beginning of the day (around 6:30 am), you can sort of guess by using a doubling or stacking principle where the day COULD possibly end. This puts price action @ 1005.75. Though I rarely use 75% retracement, in this case, it looks like after the first run up and pullback, it went another 75% of the original move.

Actually, you cannot see this as I don't have this diagraph up, but after the 100% move up from 992.75 to 999.25, the next move was up 125%, pullback, then 138.2%, pullback, then 161.8%, pullback, then 175% pullback. This is really interesting.

Of course, I was sleeping and missed these moves. Tonight, getting to bed earlier for reals.



This is a blown up view of the timeframe I traded today.

TRADE 1
- RSI uptrend
- Bearish volume diminishing
- Price action moving up
- MACD bearish weakening
- Stop was 996.75

My goal for this was to see if it would go to 61.8% retracement of the downtrend or keep going. So, at 50%, I kept an eye on this, but ended up getting taken out where I did for 1 point.

TRADES 2/3
- RSI still in uptrend, but it's reaching overbought
- More bullish volume than bearish, but still pretty weak
- MACD is increasing in bullish strength
- Broke above the 50 EMA, signifying more bullish
- Cost stop at 996.75

Notes: I had a line at 1001.75, which was an area yesterday that was congestion or an area that was tagged. Unfortunately, I had my stop right on this line and decided to move it out of the way. This caused me to not take the $37.50 per contract I could've taken before it started reversing. Had my stop pretty far back, and nearly got taken out.

The most recent lows was at 997, so I put my stop just below this, as it usually takes for an extra tick movement (slippage) to usually be taken out. I was depending on this. Was sweating bullets here some.

As it came to tag the 200 EMA, I figured it would test for sellers and kept a watchful eye on things, noting the trends in volume, MACD, price action, RSI. It looked like it was going to go up around noon, so I legged in for a 2nd position. Unfortunately, it nearly came to tag the 50% retracement, but did not make it, as that's where I had my profit stop.

So, I had to sit through another pullback, not knowing if I will be taken out or not. Things quickly went to tage 997 and I was REALLY sweating bullets by this time. I sort of held my breathe during this time and began seeing that bullish volume was coming in and felt more at ease.

As things began to take off, I wasn't sure how far it would continue and got a bit nervous. I figured to at least take profits earlier, so in case it didn't reach my target, which was 1003.50, that at least I capture something.

Here's another good example of taking profits TOO early and sitting through some big moves to gain just a little. I could've just stayed in, but it looked like it was hitting a resistance so I decided to get out. It continued to move up another 3 points, which would've allowed me to meet my goal for today and far exceed it, had I still not been fearful.

RSI was above 70, so rather than just wait and see, I got out. Oh well. I would not have gotten in a third position as I don't want to trade with more than 2 at any given time until I master using 1 & 2 contracts.

Tonight I made one trade for 1.25 pts. So, today I netted $201.**, 4 trades, 100% profitable. Thank you God!!!
0 Responses

Amazon Store