Timing, Entries


This is the 15 min. view of the ES for today, Thursday, 23-Jul-2009.

Look at the bullish candles from when it started to break out. 5 bullish candles up, pause, 3 candles essentially up, pullback a little, 2 bulls, etc.

Can you see the rhythm of the price action? The closer it gets to the moving average, the size of the candles get smaller and smaller.

Can you also see that as price action continues to go up, even a little, the RSI from about 8:30 am my chart settings, RSI is trending lower? If price action is going up and RSI is going down, that's bearish divergence.

Now look at volume. As price action is going up, bullish volume is decreasing. Also, watch the bearish volume. It's small compared to the bullish volume, however, the trend of the bearish volume is gradually increasing.

MACD is losing bullish strength as Price Action continues to increase.

We have 3 different indicators that are diverging from the price action. Sure enough, in the 1 pm time period, things start going more bearish.


This is the 1 minute period. I was not trading in the 1-minute time period, rather the 3 and 15 min. charts. But, this gives you a better view of my trades for today. I had 9 contracts, 8 different trades. The last one, I legged in.

It's sort of embarrassing to show this chart, as these are my actual trades in my funded account. As you can see, 2 of the trades, I got in at the wrong time. Both these trades, and actually one more, I got in too late. What this caused is for me to have to wait through some pausing before resuming to where it needed to be.

My cost stops were closer to the 20 EMA when it was more trending up, but as it was going sideways, the 50 EMA (blue line) was my stop, just below that. My cost stops were not taken out.



Today I ended the day profitably, and I praise God. It looked almost iffy whether this was going to be so or not. Let me share some learnings:

1. Don't panic. Often waiting to see what happens when the candle closes is better (at least for me). Sometimes they are testing to see if they are anymore sellers (if the trend is going up), or testing to see if they can bring in buyers (if the trend is going down).

When they test, sometimes what ends up is a long wick. These can seem sort of scary if this is going against you. You honestly don't know if it's really going to go far against you or really just come back.

2. When the market is moving, don't do a MARKET order. What I've found is there is too much slippage. Do a limit order or WAIT for another entry.
3. Wait for pullbacks or retracements to get in. If it's trending up quickly (you can wait until it pulls back to the 10 EMA or pauses. If it's starting to go sideways, then you can wait until it bounces off the 20 EMA or if it's really sideways, possibly the 50 EMA.
4. The markets, when they trend go in the following manner: surge, pause/pullback, surge, pause/pullback, surge, pause/pullback, etc. As it begins reaching it's resistance (in this case, an uptrend), the surges become smaller and smaller.
In the case of today, this is what it did in surges in point were:
6
6
3.5
5
4.5
4
2.75
3
2.75
Notice that each surge is getting smaller and smaller. That's another way to tell if you're nearing either resistance or support. Also, the time periods in surges (the pauses) get longer and longer.
5. For the ES, if you don't know exactly where to get out, since typically it has to go 1 tick past for you to be taken out (not always true, but typically for me), you can keep one tick ahead of where it's trading. Even if it hits the tick you're on, unless it goes one past, you most likely won't be taken out, so just manually move your stop. this sort of worked better for me today for a couple of the trades. Will attempt to do this more tomorrow.
I can see areas where I could've taken more, but didn't because I had limit stops set and just let them be taken out. Had I done the keeping 1 tick ahead, I should've been taken more from many of the trades.
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2 Responses
  1. rdv Says:

    Hi Miss D! Ik keep following you and your wonderfully written blogs and keep learning a lot.

    Though I must admit that I never trade otherwise (the ES, that is) than at market. I found that showing your position is not a good idea.

    how's the trip to B-B coming on?

    Greetz, Roberto


  2. Doris Says:

    Hi Roberto,

    No timeframe on the B-B trip, but I am making progress in my trading towards the positive, so, it's in the future!!!

    Thanks regarding my blog entries. There are more I should write, but lack of time.

    We must do what works for us. If market works for you, do it. I typically don't like that. I don't think showing my hand with 1-3 contracts anyone notices, compared to the hundreds of contracts out there.

    I make more money with limit, so I'll keep doing that. :) Afterall, it's money we want to add to our account, eh?

    Be Blessed,
    Doris


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