Head & Shoulders


I want to briefly look at the S&P's chart on a daily timeframe. The market started on 5/4 on a head & shoulders (H&S) pattern. We are nearing the end of forming the right shoulder. This really isn't a perfectly formed H&S pattern, but when I came to this chart that's what immediately appeared to me.
The 878 range is around our pivotable point, though, this H&S pattern has the right shoulder slightly higher than the left, which is more a bullish tendency. However, if it breaks the 878 range in closing, this would signal more bearishness in the market.
I would expect to test anywhere from 3+ days at testing in the range of where it traded today. At support, this is a hammer candlestick pattern. Can't quite remember the statistics for chances for reversal here, but it's under 50%. Let's see if the next day or two if we'll have a doji type candle, or an inverted hammer. An inverted hammer has a greater chance for reversal.
As we can see on 6/24 (8 candles from the right), that is an inverted hammer and there was a small reversal there to better form the right shoulder.
I find it interesting in this H&S that the inner shoulders have smaller humps than the outer shoulders. Normal H&S patterns only have one shoulder. Let's see what happens here. In a sense, it's almost like 2 skewed H&S patterns overlayed.
The bottom pain is volatility. That is beginning to increase again. As long as things stay and close above 878, I do not believe volatility will shoot up too much. However, if we break down below this point, we should see a rise in volatility.
0 Responses

Amazon Store