S&P Market Overview (Monthly & Quarterly)


I found this very interesting. If you place the Fib points at the high and low of the range, 50% retracement of the move is @ 839. For 61.8% retracement, the low Q1'09 just about tagged that right.

Who says the market is random? Very interesting.



Just wanted to take a quick look at the overall picture of the S&P, which, to me, is more representative of the market rather than the Dow or Nasdaq. As you can see from my chart, we are still in a downtrend, but on a retracement right now. Perhaps the market has reversed, but I'm not really convinced.

As you can look at the volume, March's volume was high, but April's was noticably decreased. We're only 1 week into May with another 3 weeks left. If bullish volume this month ends up being decreased from April's, then I would say we are in a retracement phase rather than a reversal.

A bullish reversal would have stronger volume tendencies.

If this is a retracement, don't count your chickens that the market is going up back to before. The areas to retrace to are typically 38.2% & 50%. You can see that's @ 1014 & 1121 (sorry, this is a little off from my chart as I used the wrong high & low for my fibs), respectively. For those bullish on the market, beware. Of course, I'm bearish, so this is happy for me, but at the same time, it really doesn't matter. Money can be made either directions.

I don't have this up, but when the market dropped and began it's assent in early 2003, it only retraced to 25% before going bullish. 25% this time would put it @ 894 and it's exceeded that already.


As a technical analyst, artist, musician, this chart is absolutely gorgeous. It is the S&P Quarterly since the beginning of the S&P in 1928. The "M" pattern is lovely. One of the concerns of this pattern is the midpoint of the "M" was broken. This signifies BEARISH. I don't think it's coincidence that this happened. The midpoint was at 815. The close of the Mar'09 candle was 797.

I can't help but see that those 18 points mean something bearish and the market is saying something very significant and people are delusional. If we take a look at volumes, Q2'08 through Q1'09 are all increasing in volume each quarter to the bearish side. Bullish volume will have to be very strong in Q2'09, coming close to the bearish volume in Q1'09, with a decrease in Q3'09 in bearish volume (or an even greater bullish volume).


Now, taking a closer view of the quarterly chart. Q2'09 has not completed yet. We are nearly 1/2 way through this quarter, and that bullish candle be anything. We'll find out on 30-Jun-2009 what that candle will be and it will be important.

My expectation is that Q3'09 will be more bearish, with probably a smaller trading range than this quarter. History often repeats itself to some extent. In 2003, we see a double bottom with the right side elevated from the left side, which is a bullish indication. Will that happen this time? We'll see.

MACD isn't as bearish as it was in 2002-2003 timeframe.
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