Perspective



Whether you are a daytrader, swing trader, or investor, it's always good to have a good understanding of the various perspectives of the market from a micro to a macro view, at least technically.

As a daytrader, I find that it is neither good nor bad that the market goes up or down. It's just a direction. I start in cash daily and end in cash daily. No big deal for me. However, for those swing trading to investor, this does make a difference.

However, as a daytrader, it's still important for me to understand from a macro view what is going on.

The past 2 months, we've seen the market hit lows it's not seen since Sep'96, which is nearly 13 yrs, and rebound from here.

Okay, looking at each of these views. What are they telling you:

YEARLY: It took 3 yrs the prior time this happened in what it did in ONE year. The longer wicks is testing for more selling action. Can we bring in more sellers. Where this year closes (which will be on 31-Dec-2009) will be very important. If it closes above 903, that will be good. 50% retracement is at 1120, which is near the close of 2003 @ 1111.92.

Something that is noteworthy is the close of 2008 (903.25) is higher than 2002 (879.82). So, if we are looking at the "M" pattern, that is a good thing. However, if this year closes below 879.82, that would signify REALLY bearishness, as the other charts indicate more bearishness to come.

HOW TO PLAY: More bullish long-term possibly for the years investor.

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QUARTERLY: Based upon what I talked about in the prior post of "M" patterns, this chart shows more bearishness and greater strength.

HOW TO PLAY: More bearish moderate long-term for the investor holding maybe from months to a few years.

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MONTHLY: In a downward trend and perhaps in retracement. Not confirmed whether this is a true reversal or not. At 38.2% retracement, it coincides with the 200 EMA.

HOW TO PLAY: Bullish for maybe a few months. If it gets to 1003 and begins pulling back, you want to get out of your bullish trades. It can still go to 50% retracement, which that point is 1119. If it stalls here, you want to get out.
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DAILY: In an upward trend. The 200 EMA is about 950. It will most likely test this, but may be pulling back to the 10 or 20 EMA (890, 870, respectively) for the next couple days. Those would be good entries to the upside.

HOW TO PLAY: Bullish in the 870-890 range to 950ish.

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HOURLY: Overall trend is bullish.

HOW TO PLAY: If above 910, go bullish. If below 896, go bearish.
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MINUTE: Trend changes often. Right now it's bullish.

HOW TO PLAY: I cannot say for this right now as earlier today it was bearish, but right now as I write this, it's bullish.
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2 Responses
  1. rdv Says:

    :-) You're one busy bee in the middle of the night (well, in your part of the world, that is).


  2. Doris Says:

    I'd have to admit there are 2 things keeping me up. I love the stock market & analysis of it. Very exciting. And, I had some caffeine yesterday, which just even a little makes my already wired self way more wired. Hence, I am not supposed to have any caffeine EVER. :)


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