News, Events, Etc.

As I look at my charts of the S&P and other stocks, with the exception of perhaps earnings for stocks, I can't really tell when there is an election day, year, when the GDP reports, unemployment, etc.

I see patterns, behaviors, movement. I don't see events. Really.

Yes, it is important to know when certain things are happening as they may be impacting the market at that moment, but when looking at it from a daily or monthly perspective, I honestly cannot say this is when "what" happened.

For example, 9/11/2001. That was a significant day for America in a bad way. The markets were shut down. But, if I look at the monthly chart, that month doesn't stand out really in the grand scheme of things.

I think there is always news to fit what is happening in the market.

If Obama becomes president, people think he will be able to turn the economy around. Yeah, okay. But, there are a lot of big businesses and wealthy people not happy with that. Even as I look at elections, the race is a lot closer than many Obama supporters would like to see. This is not a landslide election.

How many do you think those who have a direct influence on the market are Obama supporters as he impacts their bottom line?

If McCain becomes president, although he may be good for many businesses & the wealthy, he may be less effective in change due to the high democratic majority in congress.

So either way you look at it, the market going bearish overall in the next 1.5 yrs at least would be natural and a great possibility than it being bullish.

Note that in every market there are always retracements. How I see this is no matter who is president elected, we'll most likely see some stalling here and maybe a slight bullishness because we've had 2 VERY bearish months in a row. There is some pressure relief needed and this would really be a good time for it.

It seems to fall in line with maybe people being tired of all the muckraking going on and further pressure relief, which would coincide with what may happen. If we look at Oct'01 beginning, for 8 months it was in a pullback/complacency area, but began it's last major decent down which lasted another 4 months. It then spent another 8 months testing support. That puts us to summer of 2010.

I'm perfectly fine if there was a repeat of a similar fashion happening. Of course, there will ALWAYS be news that fits what the market is doing, when most people think it's the other way around. Hopefully this site will continue to be up and we can see if my predictions are correction or not.
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