Depression

Today I made a comment in Facebook how I'd like to see the S&P get to 770 or the Dow to 7200. A person commented that we are already in a Depression, another trader. Where is he getting his information or is he going back the general media?

A economic depression means there is an economic downturn for at least several years. Has it been several years? I don't think so. It's been less than a year. Even what happened in 2000-2002, that was not severe enough to be called a depression. The last time we had a true depression was nearly 80 yrs ago.

Really. It was this guy being overly emotional.

Even if the S&P gets to 770 or the Dow to 7200, that is not the end of the world. People are still making a profit in things and people still prosper during these times. It is during these times people find out what they are made of.

Even as I look in my neighborhood and surrounding neighborhoods, I see fewer foreclosures and fewer homes for sale. That's a positive sign to me.

One has got to ask where information comes from. Where does the media get their information? Is it someone who trades? I hear and know people who make money on a regular basis in the stock market, in their businesses even right now and some are prospering pretty darned well. It sure doesn't seem like an economic downturn for them, more like an economic boom.

What about all those people who are losing their jobs? Yes, that is unfortunate, but since we live in a democracy where there is capitalism, we are not restricted to working for someone else or to one way of earning a living. Granted, some ways are not moral, ethical or legal, but setting those things aside, there are many ways to make money. The stock market is just one avenue.

Having been on the other side of things in the early turn of this century and having not a clue how to make money as the markets tanked, losing all that money was quite a blow to me, as it was in the realm of 95% of my portfolio. I was one of the biggest losing accounts I knew, yet, I'm still in it because though I did fail then, that was an opportunity for me to learn a great deal.

This time around, more of my money has been made to the downside than to the upside. It almost makes me feel vindicated, as I shared with a couple people. Some people have told me that I should feel bad for wanting the markets to tank. What about all those people in their 401Ks and retirement? They'll have to work for longer. Of course that concerns me with regards to other people. I don't like seeing people see their retirements/savings drop a bunch.

However, I believe through every adversity, there are opportunities to learn and grow from. I've certainly been learning a great deal through my own stuff and though I do not wish it upon anyone and cannot say that I'd like to go through all this hell again, but it's forced me to make some very drastic changes in my life, to begin honestly looking at and addressing the issues in my life.

One of the great things about pain is that if and when there is enough, people make changes, whether positive or negative. It's our choice. I've offered to a number of people who know me to use me as a resource to learn from with regards to the stock market, so they can better understand what is happening in the markets and not listened to that darned media into scaring them into things.

Remember the War of the Worlds radio program? Well, I wasn't alive when they did that, but I heard about it. People thought this world was actually going to be invaded. It was a radio program but the people listening didn't realize that and began panicking.

I tend to err on the side of more the conspiracy theorist side in the markets are VERY manipulated. One of my "predictions" earlier in October was come election day, the S&P would close around 1015. What did it close at on 11/4? It closed at 1005.75. Gee, I was 9.25 points off.

Don't tell me that I'm psychic or that I have any influence on the market whatsoever, because I don't. I don't have anyone feeding me information or any inside track, but what I do understand is how to read a price chart and my indicators relatively well. Yes, there is always room to improve to learn and that is a continual process.

What is the information? Is it objective? Where does the information come from? What is it's source?

For example, we hear analysists say it's a good time to BUY xyz stock. Do you think that's for the common investor or trader to go buy? Actually, it's not. It's code for SELL. There is a code between the analysts and the big institutions on what they need to do. Those institutions are bound by certain laws and behaviors that they cannot do like the majority of the rest of us traders or investors. Few of us, and I do not personally know anyone that fits this category, have to notify the SECC that we are selling our shares.

Institutions buy and sell not in large clumps, but they do things on the down low, meaning, discretely so as to not cause a frenzy in things. But, you can begin seeing when key players begin to take notice and begin acting on this. There are signs and to be aware, astute, and take action. Go with the flow.

As a parent, and for those of you who have children that can talk and interact with other people regularly, how do you tell if your child is lying or something is up? You know the signs of which to look for, the behaviors, even if they are very subtle. Similar in the market. I liken it to all those gestures given in baseball to tell the other players what they are doing. To the commoner and outsider, it means nothing, but to the right people, they mean something.

We are not in a Depression. It looks like we are at the beginning of a recession. Is that a bad thing? No. Opportunities exist no matter what the economy or what our situation. Be open.
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