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Half Way There



A picture is worth a thousand words, don't you think? Well, maybe if you're a man, it might be 10 words and if you're a woman, a thousand. Sorry for the stereotype and I'm only kidding.
I decided to keep the drawing from when I created it about 2 weeks ago and decided to compare. My pivot is 1015ish area, but was can see it's been closer to 900ish. That's understandable as I personally have been more bearish on the market and happily bearish. Most of the money I've made has been on bearish positions. OF course, the money it's cost me has been me being more bearish than the market. :-(

I had to let enough days pass to show what I was talking about. As you can see from the chart, the amplitude of the wave is becoming smaller. The first wave had a low about 840, second low was 866 and now the third low is 876. I looks sort of like it's compressing into a pennant.

To me, volume says a great deal here. A video would probably do it better justice, but I'm just going to spell it out here instead as I don't really feel like doing a video, which takes longer with the upload and everything.
10/1 to 10/10 the trend of bearish volume was up as price dropped. This correlates.
10/10 you get a big surge of bearish volume and often with any surges of volume out of the norm, the next day you will get a pullback, which is exactly what happened. How do you know if it's a big surge? That volume will stand up above all other volumes near it. Remember, everything is relative.
10/14 they are testing to see if they can bring in more buyers initially, but it was just very weak and thus sellers came back in instead. However, near the end of the day, some buyers did come back. I think closing near the 200 EMA on the Monthly is significant.
10/15 attempted to see if they could get more selling action, but volumes were lower. Maybe we're a little tired of all the selling and need a break?
10/16 the bears attempted to take things down further, but bulls really came back strong and really dominated for most of the day. However, the high of this day was not enthusiasm, to attempt to get back to the 200 EMA. Volumes were not as strong either or there just wasn't the energy there.
10/17 there was optimism here for 2/3rds of the day, thinking maybe they could get back to the 200 Monthly EMA, but failed and the last 2 hrs the bears came back. The bulls just couldn't hold the bears at bay.
10/20 attempted to make a last ditch effor for now, but just didn't have the enthusiasm or gusto to really move much. People seem disinterested and not really believing things are good in the economy, as they are not. Volumes are weak.
10/21 really couldn't decide am I going to be bearish or bullish and in the end, bearish looked more attractive. If I can't move the price up, I'll drop it to see if I can do something and drop it fast. There is a general complacency.
10/22 well, if I can't get the markets to go up, I'm going to see if I can create some action by further moving the markets down.
What's interesting is if you see the lows and how it's forming, it is quite interesting the compression pattern that is developing. Pressure is building and one way or another, when it breaks out, it will move faster. So, if it trades into that point, don't be surprised. I actually see it trading into the point and sort of going sideways, with less volatility until elections.
There may be, however, a couple days that it may really do a high reach up and/or a very low reach down to see if they can bring in either buyers or sellers. I don't see these as being marabozu type days rather long wick days.
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Being Present

If you look at a couple entries ago or so in this blog, that though I was wrong in the direction I thought things would go, what I was so far correct on was the cyclical part of it and perhaps I may be correct on the area it would pivot, which is around the 1015 on the S&P range.

Basically I was upside down and giving the market more bullishness in my original prediction. Actually I was just taking a wild stab at it, but I thought 1015ish would be its pivot because that is where the 200 EMA on the Monthly is, meaning that the month would close near this point.

The tails/wicks could be quite long, which would signify battling of the bulls and bears.

There are many days I'm missing some good action, and to my readers who are interested in trading, perhaps I'm doing a disservice, but the 2 most important people to me are not missing out. They get their mommy.

I'm learning to be present and a part of managing all that is on my plate, is to focus on one thing at a time, for that moment. I want to savor each moment I have, whether it is some fantastic, glorious moment, or something that challenges me that I need to learn from.

The market will always be here, and there will always be opportunities. I am completely confident that God will empower me to generate the wealth I need for my family, as He has already done so wonderfully. But, the time I have is now with my children.

They are growing so quickly, and they will not always need their mommy. So, yes, my posts will be sporadic and maybe I won't always have the in depth technical analysis you desire, and maybe I may talk too much about my personal life, but this is my life as a trader who really wants to have it all.

There is no point in having mega millions if I ruin my family, the relationships I have, rather I want to take as many people with me as possible on this journey, to really lead full, abundant lives as possible. Life is wrought with many potholes, and learning to skillfully navigate sometimes the very treacherous roads takes time, patience, knowledge, and skill.

The world says I must perform, but I beg to differ. God wants me to be. He wants me to rest in Him. Sure, I will need to trade, do my due diligence, but not with a franticness, panic, rather with confidence and an assurance that everything will be fine.

Even in a day in the S&P where it hardly moves, there is more than enough money that can be taken off the table to support my family and so much more. These wild, crazy days are exhilarating. I am missing many of them, and some I am not. But during these times, I get to hug my children, be here for them, during a year that has been quite traumatic for us, allowing God to heal our very broken hearts and spirits.

So many people have fear about our economy and the markets, but I have such a calmness, a peace that really does surpass all understanding. There is always opportunities in what is deemed as hardship or great challenges. It's all a matter of perspective.

I'm really working on my perspective, learning to be calm in the face of turmoil and chaos. Just like an Olympian who prepares years for just that brief moment in time, I'm preparing the ground so that I can really take off. I've attempted to take off and realize I wasn't quite ready.

So, I would implore my readers to look into their lives and see where you find richness and invest there as you learn how to trade well in the stock market. Don't put off tomorrow what you could do today.

Live your life in urgency because tomorrow may never come for you. Live with no regrets. Be present. You can't change the past and tomorrow will always be just a little further ahead.

God bless you.

Break

Hello readers. I'm sorry for not posting in awhile. My kids have been on Fall Break for 2 weeks. Yes, I've still traded, but my time has been limited in blogging. If it wasn't already constrained before, it was even more constrained with the kids off school. I took quite a few of those days to really just enjoy my children and friends, as well as for a little R&R.

It took quite a bit to get rid of the nasty cough I had, which I think it's completely gone now!! Praise God!!! So, this means I can get back to business.

I started on a 90-day cleanse nearly 2 weeks ago and I think that's a part of the reason why I'm feeling much better physically. Been getting more regular with yoga, which helps with my focus. There were some challenging lessons that I learned over the past 2 weeks. Let me reiterate, if you have a good trading plan, you MUST follow it for success.

Also, I did some paperwork organization and decluttering. I still have some other financial organizing to do. The markets will always be there and daily there are opportunities.

Until next time . . . God bless you and help give you wisdom to make wise choices.

Market Predictions - My Predictions

Did you see where the S&P ended up today? Right on the 200 EMA on the Monthly chart. It's just so very beautiful.



Today looked like it could be a hammer and the day before an inverted hammer. This is only the case if we are at support. Let's see what happens. Since we are at the 200 EMA on the monthly, this is important and I would guess that it will test this area and I would not be surprised that it would test this for the next month up until elections, where right at elections would end up right around where it's at.



Based upon the election, it may continue further down or reverse here, at least for a time.



Here's what I see and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right, wow.



I figured a picture is worth a thousand words.


Look at how beautiful that monthly chart is? Looks like a M, eh? Ironic that it comes to tag the 200 EMA, eh?


Now, this is the daily chart blown up. I put my hypothecized movement of the S&P from now until the Election Day. I see things as compressing into a descending wedge and the breakout will be who becomes president. I might be biased, but if Obama becomes president, I see the market further tanking, at least in the near future. If McCain becomes president, the temporary pattern is back up, but not as high as it was prior.

The overall pattern would still be compressing with shorter cycles.

Well, this is all conjecture to me, my conjecture.

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GS Monthly (3-Oct-2008)


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