Listener Beware

I've heard things in the market news about what's been recently happening as being compared to the Great Depression. Yada, yada, yada. The media must get their information from somewhere, but it isn't with just some simple chart analysis.

This was a quick and dirty analysis. I went through 79 years of stock data in about an hr our less, so there might be some minor errors.

GREAT DEPRESSION STATS:
- Length of Time (from highest high to lowest low) = 34 months
- Value of the S&P Lost = 86.7%
- Time to Recover After & Exceed High = 22 year

NEXT ERA STATS (1/73 to 10/74):
- Uptrend After Exceeding Last Era's High = 19 yrs
- Growth = 384%
- Length of Time (high to low) = 22 months
- Value of the S&P Lost = 50%
- Time to Recover After & Exceed High = 5.75 yrs

NEXT ERA STATS (8/87 to 11/87):
- Uptrend After Exceeding Last Era's High = 7.25 yrs
- Growth = 277%
- Length of Time (high to low) = 4 months
- Value of the S&P Lost = 36%
- Time to Recover After & Exceed High = 1.92 yrs

NEXT ERA STATS (8/00 to 4/03):
- Uptrend After Exceeding Last Era's High = 11 yrs
- Growth = 461%
- Length of Time (high to low) = 32 months
- Value of the S&P Lost = 50.5%

NEXT ERA STATS (10/07 to current):
- Uptrend After Exceeding Last Era's High = 7.58 yrs
- Growth = 0%
- Length of Time (high to low) = 12 months
- Value of the S&P Lost = 30%

If the S&P drops to 1015, that will give the value of the S&P lost to about 36%, which would be like in the late 80s. If it were to drop to 50%, then it would go down to about 788. To have the results of the Great Depression, the S&P would need to drop to 210. That would be pretty bad.

Could it happen? Sure. Anything could happen.

As much as I like a bearish market, things dropping that far would hurt A LOT of people and not be good.

We've had 75 yrs of continually exceeding the prior bearish markets. This is the FIRST time that it really didn't do that, so I'm not really sure what that means.

What does this say to me? Unless some big miracles happen, it seems maybe we went up way too fast as a market, inflating prices, spending too much, not managing things. Could the Great Depression happen? Really? We have 0% growth from the last cycle. However, if something major happens that is positive, in the past, there have been pullbacks of around 30% to resume the uptrend. This could be similar.

I really don't want to see a Great Depression. If it dropped to 1015 and bounced from there to resume the uptrend, that would be nice for every, and a wonderful look at chart patterns.
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