VMW, AAPL, RIMM

Well, I got taken out of these 3 trades yesterday as my contingencies for trailing stops were hit. I chose not to get back in yet today and will wait until Monday as I had things going on that wouldn't allow me to watch the market. I was $0.25 off on GRMN, otherwise I would've been taken out of that trade, too.

Today I reset a hard stop for GRMN at $105. Today is the 2nd day of testing. I expect 2-4 days of testing for this before resuming, so I may just tighten my stop on Monday to take profits, just in case it decides to pullback more. I can reload again at a better price.

The 3 days seminar I was supposed to be at, I canceled. Attended the first day yesterday and the information was very superficial. They did talk about trading, but it was pretty lame. To spend 8-hrs not talking about anything that I could walk away with was not a good thing, so I chose not to go back. Plus, they would not allow me to have my laptop up during the seminar, which when they marketed for the class, they encouraged us to bring our laptops.

I called and complained to the company and asked for a refund, which I will be getting in 7-10 business days.

Perhaps if I have some time over the weekend, I will share a bit about a conversation between Ryan and I had regarding trading during volatile, indecisive markets and how to minimize damage.

Volatility

Though yesterday was a very bullish day in the market for many stocks, volatility remained fairly high, so that makes me wonder if the sentiment that we will be bullish for a little bit is very skeptical.

I apologize once again for not posting very often.

Many stocks were at compression patterns. Monday and Wednesday I got put into 4 trades (bullish) on RIMM, AAPL, GRMN, and VMW and these broke out of their patterns. I am in small, as the past 3 months of having been whipsawed a lot has left me feeling a bit drained.

My trading coach was able to 1:1 encourage me, which helped me, as he was feeling it, too. Not that I'm happy about that, but made me feel as if I was not alone and that what I was going through that I was not alone.

Since I'm taking profits in smaller increments in a volatile market, here are how I will play my positions.

RIMM: 0.40 trailing stop @ 123.50

The bottom of this trading range is about $113. I would get back in if it stays above this (bullish).

AAPL: 0.40 trailing stop @ 181.50

The bottom of the trading range is about $175, which would be another good entry point for bullish.

GRMN: 0.40 trailing stop @ 109.50

If this pullsback, I'll get back in and reload. It's had 4 days up, so retracement is likely.

VMW: 0.40 trailing stop @ 90.75


With all these stocks, under normal lower volality markets, I would not do trailing stops at these locations and would wait until they get closer to their targets, but I cannot stomach all the whipsaws and am choosing to take smaller profits, which is better than costs.
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Missed Opportunities?

Today looks to have been a good day to trade the stocks I normally trade and I wasn't in the game. Darn. But, since markets have been fairly indecisive and I would be out getting necessary things done today, I was not willing to put on any positions and not be able to watch them. C'est la vie.

Cash is still cash and there are more opportunities that await.

Today I took a 1-hr teleseminar where the speaker spoke about NLP (neuro linguistics programming, I believe that's what it stands for). He talked about "money blocks".

What are some of these things?

Just to recap some of what was discussed, he talked about what we believe to be true can indeed be true, whether it is or not. We can choose to reframe our beliefs.

The things that spoke to me were:
  • Do I show up INVISIBLE?
  • Is my UNcomfort zone too big?
  • Am I being powerful?
  • If I'm powerful, how do I effectively utilize that power?
  • Do I deserve . . .?
  • Do I compare myself with others?
  • Am I disapointed in myself?
  • What are my "false" beliefs about money?
  • What is my relationship with money?
  • Is it really hard to make money?
  • Why can't I keep money?
  • Can I make money work for me?

He had us do a couple mental/physical exercises: 1) River of Quick Silver; 2) Circle of Power.

Not really sure if I gained anything out of either of those 2 things, but it did give me ideas to use a different energy psychology method called Emotional Freedom Technique (EFT) on that I learned May'01 and have been using it on/off for the past 6+ years. It has been fairly effective with helping me break many addictions, phobia, fears, obsessions, bad habits. Though, I probably could've had greater and quicker success had I used a good therapist to better redirect me.

Anyway, those might be some of my impedences. I AM a skilled chartist with really good risk management. But, subconsciously, there may be some things blocking me from experiencing the full potential of my trading. So, I'll explore.

Tomorrow I will continue to practice trade, and still have a number of appointments and errands to run. It's better to take a few days off from trading than to force myself to trade and make mistakes. So, in reality, I did not miss any opportunities.

Daytrading

My style of trading is more short-term or swing trend trading. Learning to successfully daytrade has been quite a challenge. Trend trading works great in trending markets, whether up or down. However, in indecisive, highly volatile markets, daytrading would be more appropriate, unless you want to sit on the sidelines.

To say I haven't gotten beaten and bloody in the past 2.5 months, that would be an understatement. There have been some days that I honestly felt I didn't know anything about what I was doing and perhaps that I should just throw in the towel and go back to engineering, back to a career I absolutely hated.

Then, I look at my children, how beautiful they are and how God has been so good to me to bless me with them. They deserve to have a mommy that doesn't give up and willing to work through this to be successful at this.

For me, trading isn't about money and having "things". It's about freedom with my time, to have quality and quantity time. It's about freedom to be here for my children when they need me, to be able to be involved with their schools, in their lives, to know their friends and the homes they come from. It's freedom from the Corporate slavery and political BS of egos.

Why can't I make a million in the next year? What's it going to take? How do I rise above the challenges in my life? Successful people make no excuses. They rise above their challenges no matter what.

Something that has been occurring has been very humbling. To say trading has been easy is a total lie, because it hasn't been. You should see the bruises I've gotten. The market is no respector of people and it doesn't care that I want freedom with my time or whom I'm doing this for. I don't have to beat the market, just learn to peacefully co-exist with it.

It's been awhile since I shared anything about my faith, so I will here. It's only by the grace of God that today I am still able to trade. Will I tomorrow or in a week? I have no idea. Live to trade another day is a motto my broker told me quite some time ago. Since then, I've heard and read it numerous times.

I've been successful in trend trading, but the markets have not been as good here for me, so as market conditions change, I must adapt my trading to meet changing markets. I'll take Monday to practice daytrading, which honestly, I have not done, but I have daytraded. Isn't that nuts? I broke a rule of my trading - never trade a strategy until I've successfully practiced it. Duh!!!

Okay, so now I recognized I erred and am correcting it.

Oh, back to my faith (sorry if this sounds ADDish. I'm not). God has really been working out my character, squashing pride and host of other issues and fleshing out the icky characteristics that are undesirable to Him. It's been so humbling. But, God is good, very good.

Not only has trading been rough, but I've been hit in a number of other personal areas that have left me often crying out to God, asking Him when will all this pain end. Have I reached a "support"? Are we at a "morning star"? I hope so.

The past couple weeks, God has been teaching me about community, true community. Many friends from all over the world, my church, my family have reached out to help me in various areas of my life to help me through these times. THESE things impact my trading.

Many tears have been shed, but this weekend, I got to shed some tears of joy. My spirit has felt very beaten, but my physical body needed refreshment. Some people have reached out to me in some very practical ways to help me, to serve me, and I am so grateful. So, there is now a little more energy, hope, and I'm once again getting back on the horse, being focused.

No matter what. No matter how great of a chartist I am, God ultimately is my Provider. The stock market is just a tool in His Provision. I have great hope in God, but that is not the same "hope" that I talk about in trading. I do not trade on hope, rather what I see on the price chart. God equips me to be able to read the price chart.

So, I will put for the work, but it will be God that helps pave the path to help me to stay focused, to fight and champion the giants in my lives so I can successfully trade. It's a teamwork thing and He wants my cooperation. God is extraordinary, so amazing.

I truly love trading, and I believe God has given me a gift to do this. I also believe He helps me to be able to explain things in a fairly easy manner, and to relate.

Anyway, it's getting late and I need to hit the sack. God bless you all.

Charts: $SPX, AAPL

AAPL: So, which direction is AAPL going to take? I have no clue. So, I'll set a blue bracket and see what the stock does. I've been able to take profits this last week as well as have some costs here. Those tails whipsawed me.

Pivot areas: 167.25 and 163.50.


Why did I convert this to a line graph? The pattern the S&P looks to be potentially trading into a W pattern. Until it passes through the midpoint, there is no confirmation of a bullish sentiment. As you look back at the recent pasts with the W's, M's and Head & Shoulders, the S&P seems to be following these fairly well.


This is a closer view of what is happening now on a daily basis. People say we are heading into a bear market, but really, are we? The markets ARE indecisive, but it's not like we haven't experienced this before. Look back at the history.



My charts are a bit out of order. This chart of the S&P is on a WEEKLY timeframe. Note the great indecisiveness of the market in 2000. Could it be repeating now? Just a thought.




This is the overall pattern of the uptrend of the S&P as it works to figure out now what it wants to do. It's still trading within its uptrend. It really could fall to the 1400 range and still be in an uptrend.


With all these charts, what do I see for pivots for the S&P? A W pattern (and it's not confirmed yet) with the right support higher is a stronger bullish signal. But, once again, in neutral trading, keep my opinions out and let the market do what it wants to do and just go with the flow.

My bracket is set at 1463 & 1455.

Downside pivot points: 1439, 1430, 1407, 1397.

Upside pivot points: 1470, 1486, 1497, 1535

Those would be the pivot points if you are trend trading.
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Busy

I apologize for not really posting much to my blog. Life has been very busy as I continue to work through my situation.

What has trading been like? Since I'm a trend trader, that should probably tell you some about how this indecisive market is impacting me. I've had profitability, but many more costs and have been whipsawed many times.

It's left me feeling a bit beaten, bloody, and discouraged. Though this week has been net profitable for me, it hasn't been without its scars. So, today I decided to take the day off and just workout, spend it with my kids and relax.

Will post some charts later this weekend of things I'm looking at.

Chart: CMI

CMI: Today was a good entry for CMI, but tomorrow can be another 2nd entry. See chart for targets for the upside and downside, bracket. All my indicators look very bullish, but it's best to trade neutrally.

1 strike OTM options for Dec are at a bargain.
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Charts: RIG, GRMN, VMW, AAPL


RIG: It's broken out of the major & minor resistance of the trends it has been in. Today would've been a good entry for both, but if not, a bracket is set. It is a blue bracket which means those are pivot points and depending on what is happening at those points, you would get in.

Upside target @ 140. Downside target @ 114.50.

Which options? ATM if it goes through 130, Dec130C = 6.10 x 6.40. Fair Value = 6.54, so the options are fairly priced. This price is at 129.64.

If the stock comes back and bounces off 127 to the upside, the Dec130C will be less by $2-3.

If the stock goes down through 127 to the downside, Dec125P = 3.60 x 3.90. Fair Value = 4.02. Options are at a slight bargain. This price is @ 129.64.

GRMN: Looks like it's coming off support. Today would've been a better day to get in. If it decides to pullback and bounce back up, there are 2 brackets, depending on what it does. See the lines for the targets.

ATM option pricing for Dec are at a slight bargain.


VMW: This also is a blue bracket. The traders for VMW are very disciplined. Since it's also in the middle of the trend trading range, use caution. My indicators say bearish, but I would play this neutrally.

ATM options for Dec are fairly priced.

AAPL: Of these 5 stocks, AAPL is my least favorite because of where it's at. It just broke above the 190 resistance, so that is a good sign. However, my indicators of MACD, RSI, Stoch show it's overbought. However, it can continue to be bullish. The rest of my indicators seem bullish.

Upside Target @ 201. Downside Target @ 178. Within it's trend, it's sort of in the middle, which I would prefer it to be at support or resistance of the trend.

Dec APPL options for ATM are bargains - wholesale.

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So, of these 4 stocks, AAPL and GRMN ATM Dec options (both calls and puts) are at bargains. AAPL being more of a bargain. VMW and RIG are fairly priced, so not at a bargain, but also not retail.
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Charts: GOOG, GRMN, GS, RIG, QQQQ, AAPL, BIDU, CETV, CME, CMI

I'm just putting down a bunch of charts that I have marked up. If you've been following my bracket trading, then you should know where I have set entries for new trades. All orders are contingent. I have not placed any stops on my chart, but there should always be stops once entry orders have been filled.












Charts: $SPX, RIMM, FCX, MA





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