$SPX


What are the pivots for the $SPX?


In keeping with the trend it began in Mar'03, 1364 would be a great place for the $SPX to drop to today. Going below that would mean maybe another leg below the current trend is beginning.


The thing of concern that throughout the pattern in the last 4.5 yrs, any downward trend has not fallen through this many tiers. Gravity is working here and to stop a fall that goes from the very high to touching the support, well, that can be a challenge. The descent has been much quicker, steeper, so the likelihood of going below this is greater, at least from what I observe of its pattern.


We'll see.


The next major pivot point if it drops through 1364 is 1216, probably with pullbacks in between unless there is a huge "fear factor" thing going on.


As I look back at the history of the $SPX 1329.50 is also a good point to drop to. What's interesting, which I have not really studied real hard, but in the 2000 - 2003 timeframe of a bearish market, the first drop was around 200 points, 2nd drop was around 300 points, then 370ish point, then 400 points. Then, the final 2 drops, which were more hesistation of the bottoming of the market was 200 points then 160 points.


Can you picture this? It gains momentum from 200-300 and though the drops are greater the 2 succeeding, the proportion of it begins to decrease, where the amplitude begins to diminish before the bull market began.


What if the $SPX takes on a similar approach to what it did in 2000? It reached its all time highs of 1557ish and dropped those 200 points and sort of stalled, attempting to eek its way back to the 1557ish a few times but ultimately lost the battle and began its descent over the next 2 yrs.


The timeframe for ascent to the highs was around 4-5 yrs prior to the "fall". We are right in the midst of the 4-5 yr period of this ascent.


The pattern of this is very interesting. The pattern to rise is about double the timeframe to fall. Another interesting point. Gravity (fear).
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