CMI


About 10 min. before CMI bounced off its support, I considered getting in whichever direction it decided to go from the $110 range. I would've done Sep115C or Sep105P, 1 strike OTM.



CMI is a stock I've traded well in the past both funded and unfunded. However, I haven't traded it this year with funds and was considering it.

Well, we can see I waited just a little too long because it made a beautiful bounce on the 2nd chart, which is intraday. It's currently trading at $115ish. So, if I choose to get in, it will be on a pullback, or I may wait until tomorrow, as I do not want to daytrade this stock.

Here is where it takes some discipline to not chase a stock as you see it moving up so quickly, you want to jump on the band wagon. My personal thoughts now on getting in whether to get in on either the upside or downside of the stock is to really go with the trend mainly and to wait for pullbacks or consolidation/compression points to get in. If the pattern is a rectangle pattern and the range is wide enough, you can often play the rectangle, but you have to be quick to get in and out, and it does take some stomaching to do this, IMO.

With 2 more hrs, the daily candle for CMI today is a Hammer, which has a 45% chance of reversal. If we look at the first chart, this particular trend that began in Apr'07 has now had 5 rotations. Technically, it's 6 full rotations, but one of them hardly had any oomph and did not really have momentum to push it up much.

I believe with rotations, the typically is 3-5 rotations before a trend is broken. We're there, so I will give it another day to tell me whether it is going to the upside or not or going to break to the downside. Target to the upside is $129ish.

Downside Targets: $108, $98.50, $92.70

Let's see what the stock will do.. We are at a good time for a pivot and your guess is as good as mine. MACD shows sharp bearish divergence, RSI shows moves to the downside, AMA shows bearish, momentum is sort of flat, but it's tending towards bearish.

So, here is a perfect example of the price chart telling me this is a good point to bounce to the upside, but my indicators are saying the opposite. So, let's see what happens.

-------------------------------

I continue to organize my paperwork. Yesterday I got to so much done. Today not as much, as I've been at the computer more going through my charts.

-------------------------------

Is this format helping anyone? Is there a different format you'd like to see? I have not had time to do what I wanted in terms of seeing how far we could get to in a virtual account. So, right now I'm just sharing what I'm doing in my real accouts.
Labels: edit post
0 Responses

Amazon Store